In 2023, global CO2 emissions reached a record high 37.4 billion tonnes. But there is still hope for the future.
According to the report from the International Energy Agency, global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1 per cent in 2023, an increase of 410 million tonnes. Coal emissions contributed to 65 per cent of this increase, and global droughts leading to a shortfall in hydropower generation contributed to an increase in carbon emissions of roughly 170 Mt.
However, there are positives to be taken away from the IEA report. Since 2019, without the expansion and development of key green technologies including solar PV, wind, nuclear, heat pumps, and electric vehicles, the emissions growth between 2019 and 2023 would have been an estimated three times larger than the actual emissions growth of around 900 Mt. Clean energy growth is limiting emissions growth and having a positive climate impact.
Tracking the progress of renewables, global capacity additions of wind and solar “reached a record almost 540 GW in 2023, up 75 per cent on the level of 2022,” the report states. Furthermore, the sales of electric cars rose to almost 14 million, 35 per cent higher than 2022. While global CO2 emissions are still far too high for key global climate targets, clean technology growth is occurring at impressive rates.
“The IEA’s latest global emissions report highlights the very dreary reality that adverse climate change impacts are, in many ways, self-serving. Take the example of hydroelectric power. Last year, if hydroelectric energy generation had hit forecast rates, carbon emissions would have been significantly lower globally. However, climate damaging activities, such as burning fossil fuels, has led to extreme weather conditions. In 2023, all Amazon basin countries recorded the lowest rainfall from July to September in over 40 years. Conditions such as low rainfall and droughts lessened the impact of hydroelectric power, meaning we have to turn to oil and gas for energy which is environmentally damaging and contributes further to these adverse climate conditions.”
“Another key factor of consideration when tracking global carbon emissions is energy demand. 2023 saw record temperatures across the globe. Extreme temperatures create surges in demand for heating and cooling. This puts great pressure on our energy system. However, 2023 saw much milder winter’s too, which reduced heating use and demand in places like the United States and Europe. It’s a very tenuous silver lining, but something to consider.”
Vicky Wilding, Green Technologies & Services Lead, Green Economy
In 2023, advanced economies saw a record decline in emissions. Advanced economies had emissions lower than they were 50 years ago in 1973 and have been in structural decline since 2007. Significantly, emissions reductions in advanced economies in 2023 uniquely coincided with a 1.7 per cent expansion in advanced economy GDP. For emissions reductions to occur outside a recessionary period is important as it implies advanced economies are leaning into sustainable growth and proliferating net zero ideologies among businesses and consumers.
Almost two thirds of these emissions reductions occurred in the electricity sector, with coal use declining to 1900 levels and renewables increasing their share of electricity generation to 34 per cent while coal took a historic low of 17 per cent. This highlights a positive movement away from traditional fossil fuel energy sources as economies increase the rollout of renewable energy technologies.
However, while total CO2 emissions have declined in Europe and the United States, China and India have seen their emissions rise due to “energy-intensive” growth. Economic recovery from the global pandemic and a poor weather conditions impacting hydropower generation has been particularly troublesome for China’s reported emissions. Overall, China’s emissions grew 565 Mt in 2023, an increase of 4.7 per cent.
Meanwhile, India saw their emissions grow by around 190 Mt, an increase of just over 7 per cent. A poor monsoon weakening the contribution of hydroelectricity has also been attributed to this rise.
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